In the soundtrack of my life, I’ve had songs from Hamilton occur with increasing frequency. One particular piece, Wait For It, resonates most clearly where I feel I am in my trading life. Specifically:
Death doesn’t discriminate
Between the sinners
And the saints
It takes and it takes and it takes
And we keep living anyway
We rise and we fall
And we break
And we make our mistakes
And if there’s a reason I’m still alive
When everyone who loves me has died
I’m willing to wait for it
I am the one thing in life I can control
I am inimitable
I am an original
I’m not falling behind or running late
I’m not standing still
I am lying in wait
Indeed, lying in wait. And I’ve described myself in that fashion recently.
See, I came into this rather amazing week (which is only three days in so far, but feels like a month) extremely short…….over 200% short. I beat a hasty retreat, and by Tuesday morning, I was down to only 60% short and 40% cash. In other words, I had dropped by exposure by about 70% in a very short amount of time.
By the middle of the day, Wednesday, however, I was legging back in (as my PLUS users who, who themselves got EIGHTEEN specific short ideas during the trading day). As of this moment, typing away here on Wednesday evening, I’m about 135% short.
Whether or not we’ve already seen the entire recovery from the selloff is, of course, unknown at this time. I didn’t just pile in willy-nilly to the same tickers I was short before. I carefully selected items I believed had an attractive risk/reward ratio. At present, I have 35 different short positions, and 34 of them are profitable. The other has a miniscule loss. My options portfolio has four positions, all four of which have double-digit percentage profits.
The key question to me is: red line or blue line? Because I think we’ve seen our highs already. I simply think it’s a matter of how much steam the counter-trend bounce has. It is possible it had enough power for just a couple of days, and not only are we done, but I’ll soon regret not being fully 200% short again. Or perhaps there’s more upside based on some stupid-ass government pronouncements. But – – blue or red, blue or red – – that is the question.
I’ll say this, though………..remember how baffled I was that Trump could keep making new achievements in unabashed hubris and never be punished for it? I am baffled no more. The punishment has begun, and it’s going to be absolutely fascinating to see how this unfolds.
There is virtually nothing in life that can be guaranteed, but I absolutely 100% guarantee you this: he won’t take the blame for what’s about to take place. He will point fingers everywhere possible except for himself. And that’s a promise you can bank on.