Below is NFTRH 499‘s opening segment and the first part of the US Stock Market segment. As for the entire report, here’s what subscriber JF had to say before giving me some of his views on the market. Interactions with NFTRH subscribers, an astute bunch, is a hidden benefit I receive from this service.
“Will write more later when in front of PC, but this is a great report. Fucking absurdly solidly enjoyable thorough and easy to read and ponder. Well done.”
It Is What It Is
We will update charts of US stock indexes and sectors, along with global markets in the report below, as usual. But for this week’s intro segment I want to think about the origin of Biiwii.com’s URL (but it is what it is) because there are echoes of inputs from 2004 in play, which were part of the reason for the name of the website.
Specifically, back in 2003-2004 most people were still bearish in expectation of an ongoing secular bear market to follow the secular bull that had concluded in 2000. Personally, I had been leaning toward a resumption of the bear after the 2003 double (‘W’) bottom and bounce. But at some point in 2004 I realized that it wasn’t happening and that inflation was lifting stocks while it lifted gold, silver and commodities even more. But it was what it was, Alan Greenspan had cooked up new bubbles.
Please have a grain of salt with the thoughts above as applied to the current situation. We are and for many weeks have been completely open to an ‘M’ top-test scenario. But one major advantage to having been around for a long while is that you build up a portfolio of experiences, and one of my most profound was in having to force myself to give up a bear view that I felt strongly about and just go with the bull view (inflationary or not), which extended for a few more years until the top in 2007. So “it is what it is” is actually just an exercise in open-mindedness. I for one, remain open minded.
US Stock Market
Continuing the theme from the opening segment, I realize we are human and most of us have an internal sense of right and wrong. I realize that ever since I began really looking into the workings of the markets back in the 2000-2002 time frame when our funds – overseen by a financial adviser – were cut in half, my strong bias has been that the system is corrupt, bankrupt and otherwise rigged through inflation and policy.
That is parallel to the views of many a bear today. It is what it is; corrupt, rigged, manipulated by deed and jawbone, inflated, massaged, pumped and funded by irreconcilable $Trillions in debt. So what? It is what it is.
My point is that our job is to take the market they give us, not from the perspective of being on the bear TEAM, the gold bug TEAM or the bull TEAM. “Go TEAM!!!” implore the cheerleaders and pompom wavers by definition. If we are going to participate in the markets there can only be the right team, and humbly so.
So stepping off that soapbox and into this week’s market management, SPX took a big step toward the ‘M’ top-test scenario, at least. At most, it would be brewing a new up leg to end the correction. I am still skeptical of that outcome however, due to the… [and on we went to 64 more pages of focused market management that really helped me out personally this week].