Contraction Mode Deepens For Germany’s Manufacturing PMI

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Germany’s Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.

Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month’s release (March 22) for possible clues.

The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.

The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.

With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.

Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I’ve shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.

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