The following is the Currencies segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 546. The fate of the US dollar will of course play into a global macro trade per Friday’s post.
Currencies
A reminder that we are not using the standard gold bug method of evaluating the USD (perma “death to the dollar!!”). We are using fundamentals in evaluating its potential to correct (and launch a global macro trade). The blue shaded boxes on this weekly chart tell the story of Fed policy (Fed Funds/3 mo. T-Bill) that significantly lagged the upturn in the 2yr yield into late 2015. But USD turned up much earlier (in 2014) to follow the 2yr.
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