The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be

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In the last post, which was about what Future Trend was projecting for various ETFs, someone asked if this feature in SlopeCharts could show you how it would have done in the past with its own projections. The answer is yes, and the dialog box which controls this is as follows:.

In the same post, another user made a snarky comment about what a poor job it did with Tesla in the past. And……..he’s quite right! Using the “Show Prior Future Trend and Future Trend” choice, we can see that the prediction about Tesla was pretty horrible, as the tinted spread indicates the canyon between what prices were predicted and those that actually took place.

But that’s precisely why I made this feature……… you could actually see, hypothetically, how things would have turned out, thus giving you something meaningful to judge whether a particular instrument tends to have some predictability or not.

I offer below a few examples in which Future Trend did a pretty decent job forecasting future prices. As you can tell with the tinted zones, the difference between the targeted price and where things actually were was quite small indeed.

So, again, when using Future Trend, it’s definitely a good idea to do a reality check on past performance. As the saying goes, that isn’t necessarily a forecast of future results, but to my mind, it’s a lot better than just hoping or guessing.

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