First Slip

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Well, the big week is here. Two years has been leading up to this week. It is, once again, the big China/US Trade Deal week. And I have said repeatedly – – and I stand alone in this opinion – – that the thing is going to be a total washout. Simply stated, I think we’re going to see the same kind of success with China as we did with another Asian nation:


……even though just two days ago both sides were saying everything was just peaches ‘n’ cream with the entire negotiation.

I suspect that we’re going to be shoveled the same kind of crap all week long about how we need to Respect Both Sides and how they are Working Through the Details. And, in the end, it’s going to be:


It’s nothing definitive, of course, is this totally manipulated market, but at least there seems to be some signs of worry already in the ES (I am typing this Sunday evening):


I presently have 62 short positions and 21 others sitting in the wings. I also have a very large XLU Bearish Call Spread.

In addition, I have a Bearish Put Spread on the SPY. Or so I thought. Until Baby Bear pointed out to me it was Bullish. Which shows how I barely know what the hell I am doing on this options stuff. I guess it’s less humiliating than if I profited from making the opposite trade of what I intended! And my only other comfort is that it’s quite tiny. But still…………sheesh!!!