No, I’m not referring to my trading day (although it would be apt). I feel compelled to share once more the 10 year-2 year interest rate spread chart, which has been the most reliable recession indicator I’ve found.
I overlaid the SPY with the same chart to take note of the relationship between bear markets and this recession signal. It’s a little tough to interpret, because the SPY has moved so much higher in absolute terms that it isn’t as simple to tease out the cycles. But I encourage you to take a look and draw your own conclusions (and, as always, click on it for much better visibility).
