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It goes without saying that the market is vastly more volatile than it was. It seems almost comic that we were struggling around with a VIX at 11. Not that long ago, the market had a tiny little range every day, and it basically just went grinding up about 0.4% every single day, day after miserable day. It was awful, predictable, and horrendously dull.
Many of you know the name David Stockman. He was Ronald Reagan’s famous budget director for the “Reagan Revolution” , a Congressman, a money manager, and author of what I consider the greatest business book ever written, The Great Deformation. He is, incidentally, a paying member of the Slope of Hope, and I have had the pleasure of corresponding with him.
As my over-the-top review of his book suggests, I consider Mr. Stockman a stunningly superb writer. Besides his excellent books, he also writes a five-times-a-week missive called Contra Corner, of which I am a dues-paying member. He wrote me about a week ago and suggested Slopers might find it appealing, as I do, so he suggested (unprompted by me) promoting Contra Corner here on Slope. I readily agreed.
Here is his “pitch” below. I am, let’s just say, a thrifty soul, and Contra Corner is the ONLY thing I subscribe to. I’d urge you to consider signing up, since he offers a vantage point I don’t think you can get anywhere else. So here’s David……………
(more…)Before I begin with what I want to say this weekend, let’s just stop and take a look and marvel at what we’ve just seen. For the next hundred years, students of the stock market will look back at the last three weeks and attempt to understand and learn from what we just experienced. A three week 27% crash in the S&P 500 straight off of all time highs. The Russell fell 35%. Amazing.
I woke up this morning thinking, “I have so much writing to do.” I love my self-created avocation. But this is going to be one busy weekend. I just dashed off my first premium post to my Gold and Diamond members. I need to clear time to do my “big” post.
In the interim, I’d like to offer the chart below of the Russell 2000. As you can infer, it is absolutely plausible that a major bottom is in place, or nearly in place. I am still utterly on the fence, as the much longer post later today will reveal. But I wanted to at least get our collective wheels spinning on this one image.
Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.
