Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fundamentally Flawed

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It’s breathtaking that people are being told what a good value stocks are, and what a great time it is to get into equities. Naturally they are going to be told this, because a multi-trillion dollar industry profits from it. No one makes money from people fleeing. But the long-term P/E clearly shows that, with the exception of the year 2000 (since so many companies had NEGATIVE “earnings”) we are higher than ever.

slopechart MULTPL SHILLER PE RATIO MONTH
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Interest Wednesday

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Tomorrow is the big day, of course. Powell time again. Two hours before the market closes, the announcement rolls out, and half an hour later, he does his press conference. As always, caution will prevail, and every syllable will be selected carefully. Added to which, whatever movements the market makes immediately following the announcement won’t mean much. It usually takes until at least the market close before some kind of clarity is there with respect to reaction.

For many months, the 10-year minus 3-month has been recovering from its “a recession is here” depths.

slopechart FR T Y M
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