Macro Falling Into Place

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Pretty please with sugar on top, let the markets correct

Because this week I did the very thing that exposes my dark side by shorting leveraged mid-caps (MIDU) and this morning got long a VIX vehicle (VIXY) while it was still negative. Before that I shorted the Euro (EUO) and longed the USD (UUP), which are sort of the same thing, and raised a lot of cash. When I have anti-market or bear positions and the markets get a kick save I get disturbed. It’s a psychological vulnerability I have.

I’d rather do this the easy way instead of the usual way bearish positioning goes. I will not make money if the market crashes, but I’ll lose a lot less of it as the portfolios are constructed right now. From here I have the option to go back to bull boy or increase bearish positioning, pending setups and indicators.

So… I am ready for it. I was out for the last 1.5 hours of the day and the last thing I wanted to see when I returned was the market up and that is for two main reasons:

  1. The market is a bloated pig and while I gladly longed it last year, 2021 has been increasingly uncomfortable being a bull among the rampant momo and frankly, stoopidity like I’ve never seen before in the various speculations from Crypto currencies to those meme stock pumps. All at the hands of the Fed, which is now fretting (along with Yellen) that ‘oh by the way, we may have created too much inflation’. That is sick, not to mention morally bankrupt.
  2. I am a gold bug. A gold bug who hates* and is hated by the gold/commodity/inflation touts and bull horns (got Twitter blocks to prove it), but a gold bug nonetheless.

* Strong word, but work with me here. I actually don’t care enough about them to hate them. I just want them exposed to the light of unbiased and logical thinking.

Hence…

…the Macrocosm needs to slam into place, shut the inflationists up and send their followers scattering all over the macro before we pick up the pieces. I’ve been getting ground up, giving back some of 2021’s gains but if it is in service to that blessed state of a panicked macro, with herds thundering behind the analytical leaders (basically, the smaller herd out front), the worse it gets the better I will feel.

I mean, if the bulls maintain their composure in denial of all the negative divergences, over-bullish sentiment and breadth issues in play, so be it. I’ll have to go back to playing that game. But the market needs a cleaning and the gold stock sector needs to get rid of these commodity/inflation guru shysters. Then I will feel really good, regardless of short-term performance or lack thereof.

In short, if this really is a change – even if for just a correction – things will finally get interesting for people who have plans that work. I intend for my plans to work because they will be in alignment with what is actually happening, not what some guru or social media influencer tells me is happening.

Oh, and as a final thought and reason why silver bugs should realize they are part of the inflation trades, and different from gold, this…

gold/silver ratio

If the Gold/Silver ratio and US dollar ride together then so will the 2 Horsemen of the Apocalypse.