Garth, Wayne… Mo?

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Fo-Moe? Faux-Moe? Whatever it is, FOMO-driven MOMO is in play

Manic forces likely driven by the fear of missing out seem to be overtaking markets. This environment of inflation-fueled speculation was created by the 2020 Federal Reserve in panic mode, while today the 2021 Federal Reserve is trying to manage us in the other direction according to the James Bullard indicator, at least. How difficult might it be to put all of these released animal spirits back in the box? Eh James? Eh Jerome? Does Lael even want them back in a box? How about Janet (not on the FOMC I know, but she’s always there in the side car)?

This type of FOMO drives a mania in its latter stages. That is the view I have of the broad US stock market. But as copper recovers, Ags break out, downtrodden sectors put on a move (and oops, the BDI diverges), it feels like a party atmosphere out there as everybody it seems, aside from oil and gas, get on the bull.

As we noted in NFTRH, the seasonal aspect turned positive in October.

Is it sustainable? Well, I have to go out soon for the rest of the day and let’s just say I would not be surprised to see it all reversed when I return. Nor would I be surprised at mania still in progress. [edit] Well, I returned and it was still Moe-Mo ‘on’.

Of note, my two down-trodden sectors, Gold stocks and Pot (US MSO) stocks are partying right along. So for better or worse gold stocks may be tying their short-term fate to the general party. That is not usually the best environment for the miners.

As to the Cannabis MSOs, I’ve got a list of them that are preferred and since I’ve been buying and holding for the tax loss seasonal play, I’ll just keep right on doing so. As per NFTRH over the last several weeks, it appears to me to be a no-brainer (as in ‘what, folks, am I missing?’).

The other preferred sector, also per the last many weeks of NFTRH reports, has been the Semiconductors, which have been leading the party lately. I’ve pared back and taken some profits (e.g. partials in WOLF and AMAT and the full profit in QCOM while still holding some positions) as the FOMOs get on it.

Meanwhile, there are the market’s macro signaling and associated rotations to deal with. Today I am not prepared to write intelligently about that and even if I were I don’t have the energy or time for it. That’ll be part NFTRH 681’s job.

Meanwhile, Garth… Wayne… Moe?