Hello from Durham, as I prepare to – gasp – head back to my beloved Palo Alto this evening. I pray to the gods above this not mean what I think it must mean. All the same, here’s where my head is at:
- I have heard from multiple parties, both via email and Twitter, to get out. Take profits. Don’t swing for the fences. Go to all cash.
- I have gone through my dozens of positions. Every single chart is gorgeous. Every single chart has cracked crucial support levels. These are going to get wrecked. I’m not closing dick.
- I do this in the face of the terrifyingly-powerful Tim Is Traveling wizardry, and at great peril.
- Beyond all this, I urge you to keep in mind that in just a few trading days, the Fed is going to drop the hammer, and it could be a sea-change in the market (until later this year, of course, when Powell wimps out yet again and starts desperately hurling trillions at the market).
I must say, it’s awfully interesting how Jerome Powell took his own selfish personal interests (getting another 4-year re-appointment to head the Fed until he’s dead) ahead of, well, everyone on the planet. He kept interest rates deeply negative in real terms, and kept gobbling up hundreds of billions in government securities, merely to keep that powerful post of his intact. It’s disgusting, really, but virtually no one in American has their eyes open enough to realize it.
I am typing this a full two and a half hours before the open (getting up at 5:30 a.m. is hard-wired in me, so it’s kind of a bore waiting for the market on the East coast). As I’m typing this, the NQ is up triple digits and has erased its entire swoon from yesterday afternoon. Oh noes! The bulls are gonna get us! It’s a new bull market! Stocks are value-priced! Gimme a break. I’ll say it again: like a reluctant newcomer to the Castro District, I’m not doing dick.
The bigger picture tells the tale. We are hammering away at this. Chip by chip. Brick by brick. Support is going to fail. Lower lows. Lower highs. It’s all that matters.
My portfolio is granular. I take things one chart at a time. If a specific chart violates its rationale for the position, yes, I will exit. Otherwise…………..something to do with dick.
