Ever since the market stopped plunging a month ago, we’ve been engaged in a violent tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears in a massive 300-pound range on the /ES. We’re near the top of that range now.
The bears want to see a break of the mid-June lows. The bulls want to see a breakout above the 4000 on the S&P to get the bull market restarted again. It seems last week’s red-hot inflation numbers have been utterly forgotten, and so far, the earnings season hasn’t yielded much insight.
One item I’ve been watching, obviously, has been crypto, since I think its direction is a big psychological component. Oddly, the two big ones – Bitcoin and Ethereum – haven’t been moving in lockstep like they normally do. Bitcoin has been lagging. At the moment, it is attempting yet again to break out above its bullish base. If it truly starts to get momentum, this will blow more wind into the sails of the U.S.S. Bullish.
On the other hand, I wonder if Ethereum has already shot its proverbial wad, since it has made it to its targeted move and is just flopping around there. If BTC does in fact break out, will ETH have another leg up? Or did it simply lead the way and isn’t going any higher?
That question, I believe, is the big one before us.
For myself, this is the third nasty day (Friday, Monday, today) in a row, and I have once again drop-kicked my weakest positions and am back up to 25% cash. This is a total drag, and the only one enjoying it right now is my broker.
