My post from July 21st, A Frightful Update, seems to have served as the most accurate roadmap for what’s going on in the market. I am reminded of this since, in spite of the equity futures taking a nice tumble on Sunday, the markets have, as has been their habit for two months, told the bears “Screw YOU” with the price action all night long……..
As I wrote at the time:
- There’s a big plunge (red arrow) which terminates (red circle);
- There’s a strong counter-trend bounce which exhausts itself (cyan circle);
- The market falls again, not getting as low as before (green circle);
- The market rises again, not getting as high as before (orange circle);
- The market falls again, getting below step “3” but not as low as step “1” (white circle);
- Then – – and here’s the frightful prospect!! – – it goes absolutely roaring higher, even higher than when the step (1) plunge commenced (white arrow)
If this transpires again, we’re talking about an /ES above 4,200.
As I’m typing this, the /ES is at 4173, so we’re getting awfully close. Below is the updated /ES chart. My view is that our target is where I’ve drawn that red rectangle – – sometime within the next ten trading days (oddly, just about when BEAR FORCE ONE launches next Wednesday) and above the 4200 level.
The whole experience has been a gargantuan pain in the ass, in spite of the fact I laid it out beautifully.
Just about the only bright note is that crude oil is down (which is also following my game plan) and has breached its last wispy levels of support, now at levels from early February when most Americans had never even heard of a place called “Ukraine”.
