Today feels like a miniature version of last Thursday. That is to say, an hour before the open, a lot of excitement about what a great day it was going to be for the bears, and then well into the trading day, it pretty much sucks out loud. As I’m typing this, the /ES experienced nearly a ONE HUNDRED POINT reversal, and the /NQ is up triple digits. I remain at 25% cash and in 25 positions, and overall the day is kind of a pisser.
For the moment, the /ES is still just banging out a steady series of lower highs. This could break at any moment, however. I mean, Good Lord, all it took this morning to rip the /ES was a RUMOR that the Fed might slightly lower the PACE of interest rate increases next year. B.F.D.! Is that considered fantastic news?!?!
What I want to avoid, of course, is the goddamned nightmare of June 15-August 15 repeating itself. The beat-down in the market in recent months is similar to what we had in the springtime. We want to avoid the equivalent of the green circle, where the downtrend is clearly broken. This is an absolutely plausible scenario.
