I’m going to set aside my weekend dependence on videos (which are much easier than posts) and actually muster some text ‘n’ graphics instead. This time, I’d like to home in on the key exchange traded funds.
First up is the DIA, which has been cruising along its ascending price channel for, well, forever. There’s little to say at this point except that it is close to its midline. I think it’s entirely possible that the euphoria about the new administration and how They’ll Fix Everything will take a few months to die off. Once it does, though, it’ll be a sight to behold.
The worldwide fund might provide some appealing bear opportunities in the meanwhile. I have a large short position on this sucker, with a stop-loss at the price gap, which is anchored to the horizontal. The damaged trendline is, for me, the “tell”.
Mexico probably doesn’t have a great future ahead of it with the new administration, and I think the massive H&S top on its ETF is indicative of what’s in store for 2025.
My hesitation about precious metals was well-founded, and it seems to me that precious metals miners are in for a world of hurt in the weeks ahead.
The same can be said for gold. It’s frustrating, because I’d love for the Big Silver Bull Market to kick off, but I think gold is going to pull that sucker down. The jury is still out on the PM space.
Small caps have been blasting higher for the past thirteen months, and they represent the most important existential threat to the two or three equity bears still surviving here on Earth.
Likewise, the cubes are still bullishly configured. There’s not a bearish thing about this chart, and there won’t be until and unless that medium-term trendline is busted. The only thing with a plausible chance of creating such a fracture would be the semiconductor sector. Simply stated, it’s all up to NVDA to crack the NASDAQ.
Speaking of silver, here’s the bullish base. It is precarious, however. If the price breaks that trendline I’ve drawn (and it wouldn’t take much), it throws the entire idea into peril.
As I mentioned, the last, best hope for the two or three surviving bears on the planet is the semiconductor sector. Here is the semi fund, which might – – I emphasize might – – be in the final throes of forming a reversal. If we can get prices below that semi-circle, it’s party time.
The oldest and biggest fund, the spyders, has been merrily chirping along, notching nearly 60 lifetime highs during this permabullish year. .There’s no reason to doubt it will cease doing so, unless it can crack its August 5th trendline. That, it seems, would take something along the lines of a global thermonuclear war.
Lastly, the utilities are looking quite ill. They had bene absolutely raging higher, hitting unprecedented prices just last week. Reecntly, however, it has failed its bullish breakout, and component parts like NEE seem to be look exhausted as well.
