Welcome to another chopped-up week, everyone, where we don’t know if it’s Friday, Monday, or somewhere in between. Two weeks ago: chopped by Christmas. Last week: chopped by New Year’s. This week: chopped by Carter. Two weeks from now: chopped by Martin Luther King. It’s as if a normal trading week only occurs once a year.
Anyway, it’s the same old, same old for the market. The bulls are getting handed profits on a silver platter. Here’s the /ES, drifting effortlessly higher.
Hold your horses, though. Take a step back. yes, the /ES has been ripping, but as always, keep context in mind. This is a bounce. Not a base.
The /NQ is up over 1% this morning, pre-market, but here, too, I must hammer my fist on the table and ask you keep context in mind. The /NQ trendline has failed, and a triangle top is still being constructed, tick by tick.
All but the most naive among us know that virtually every campaign promise is going to be broken and forgotten. The first to go was “I will make inflation go down starting on Day One.” That’s already been completely dismissed, and with zero consequence.
Now, “We are going to tariff all imports” is getting torched (which is why the market is rallying so mightily). I seriously expect only the easiest promises will be kept, like letting the Shaman guy go free – – that kind of thing. Everything substantive is just going to be a cruel joke.
With the latest aforementioned broken promise, the dollar went into a free-fall, which sent gold soaring along with all other assets. Well, that didn’t last, and we’re already reversing hard. My GDX puts appreciate the effort, gold.
I’m quite short oil producers, which makes crude oil’s modest strength (+0.64%) annoying. Yet I tell my own self, hey, bucky, context. Take a look what has been happening for months. I’d say the money shot is at hand.
Anyway, I am very happy that you’re here, and I look forward to a good year with Slopers.
