Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Winning the Wrong Way

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Winning the Wrong Way: Lessons from a Drunken Gambler

“Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose…”

— David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker

Most investors don’t lose money because they lack intelligence. They lose because they mistake outcomes for skill.

A few winning trades, a hot stock tip, or a lucky streak can seduce even the most rational person into thinking they’ve cracked the code. But if you’re serious about trading—especially options—you can’t afford to play that game. You need a strategy where the odds are tilted in your favor, not just this week, but over years of repeated decisions.

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Down Syndrome

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The widely anticipated PCE came out, and, in spite of being concocted by the very government which is dependent on the number being low, it actually came in hot. Indeed, over the past four months, I think I’m sensing a bit of a trend.

December 2024+.1%
January 2025+.2%
February 2025+.3%
March 2025+.4%

I guess the “I Will Fix Inflation on Day One” pledge has gone the way of all the other Day One pledges, eh? One thing is for sure: they will simply call this The Biden Inflation and be done with it.

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It’s A Kind Of Magic

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One of the things I enjoy most about being a technical analyst is that sometimes we can make calls that almost look like magic as they deliver, though in truth they’re obviously just a combination of math, historical analysis and good pattern recognition. I also love an uncertain market, as while anyone can look like a genius in a strongly trending market, it takes real skill to trace the likely paths ahead in uncertain markets. Whatever else Trump has done or may yet do this year, he’s at least been delivering a an interesting year for me, and I thank him for that. 🙂

Anyway, the story of this rally so far ……..

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