Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Tweaks and Geeks

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A cheerful morning to you all! I wanted to bring you up to date on my own positioning. I sold my SMH calls yesterday afternoon at a decent profit (and before the end-of-day price plunge, which was nothing but good luck on my part). I still think semis could be in for a good counter-trend rally, but I honestly didn’t want to stick around.

I also covered my way-too-large XLU short for great profits, although I have retained my NEE puts for the longer haul. NEE is a major utility, so it’s a similar trade, and I think the setup is a beauty.

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Turning of the Screw

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The VIX blasted from about 14 to 24 in recent days, which typically has meant the termination of fun for the bears, forcing them to wait, yet again, for weeks or even months for another chance to make money. I’m not so sure it’s going to roll that way this time, but let’s take a look at some action in a few major cash markets, accompanied by a trio of exponential moving averages (50/100/200).

The NASDAQ Composite tagged the 200-day EMA, which normally marks the end of a sell-off. It goes without saying that the resumption of the bull market following such a sell-off is not perpetual. All trends end. My spidey sense is that this one has, too.

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Cry Havoc …….

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In my post yesterday I was looking at the very nice rally setup that triggered with the rally on Friday and that looked very promising. It might have failed in any case but yesterday Trump delivered a major news bomb when he confirmed that the threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be implemented today, and that further tariffs would be implemented on China, and markets have been dropping hard since then. There is currently every reason to expect that these will be followed by further tariffs on the EU next month, so we may well be looking here at the start of a global trade war. Canada had already announced retaliatory tariffs against the US, in the event of the US imposing 25% tariffs, that will now also be implemented and there is good reason to expect that the EU will react the same way. China is already retaliating of course.

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