Fifteen days ago, I was bracing myself for the surrender-to-China moment in the trade war. It was brutal, but I made it through intact. This morning I’m facing the same situation, but this time it’s surrender-to-EU instead. The rise isn’t as absolutely brutal, but at about 1.5% or so, it’s no walk in the park. All through the night, the US dollar has been gaining strength, which is in line with stronger equities.
If we look at a timeline not as time as the minute bars shown above, you can see that, in context, it isn’t quite so big a deal. The US dollar has been getting killed for weeks, and this morning’s apparently mega-rise is not much more than a blip. I honestly think that once all this trade war nonsense is over, it’ll be as substantive, genuine, and meaningful as the shiny crucifix resting atop Karoline Leavitt’s heaving bosom.
Indeed, the USD/JPY is “curling” lower right now, and the battered precious metals market is simultaneously curling upward. We’ll see if these curls stick!
One bright spot for me, although it’s hardly a thorough salve, is crude oil, which has been trading terribly jaggedly but is still sporting a loss. I’m heavily short energy producers, so that’s a step in the right direction.
Funny enough, the shock event Friday morning of Trump’s tweet tirade (the AAPL and EU one-two punch) was a great time for a short-term buy, since the /RTY (and everything else) has been up ever since. I would hasten to point out the failed right triangle pattern, however, to which we’ve merely zipped back to the base.
Looking much, much longer term, by way of a multi-year weekly chart, you can see that the powerful surge over the past two weeks will probably mean as much as – – well – – kindly refer to Ms. Leavitt’s bosom, mentioned above.
Time for battle. I’ll see you on the beach.
