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If you had asked any trader yesterday what today would be like, I suspect they would spell out precisely the opposite of what we are seeing right now. Right on the heels of an unprecedented attack against Iran, as well as threats of sealing off the Strait of Hormuz, we have crude oil going into an absolutely free-fall:
Here’s something kind of eye-opening: California is an incredibly rich and prosperous state, and yet our public transportation sucks. Los Angeles has a relative GDP that is twenty times the size of Tehran, yet the ridership of its rail system is not even 10% of the Iranian capital. Look how much more complete the rail system is compared to the city of angels.
Here are the WEEKLY HEAT MAPS updated as of last Friday’s close: NVDA is the only stock overbought, Crude Oil is also very overbought but the Iran situation is a factor in that, so it could go higher.
Broadly speaking 50% prob. of reversal is where a transition starts to happen, from neutral to oversold or from neutral to overbought, however >50% is when the probability of reversal becomes good, the chance of a sudden reversal rises.
