Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Pullback in the Offing?

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……But Then It May Go Higher

Good morning everyone, here is the updated DAILY HEAT MAP for probability of reversal for SPX,NDX and RUT indices, after yesterday’s DAILY Close: all the 3 indices are short-term overbought according to my statistical pattern trend model. They can certainly go higher, but one can start to try short trades from here.

I am a big fan of Vertical Spreads (BearCALLs, BullPUTs) because you can enter the trade exactly at the close, and that goes hand-in-hand with my time model (consecutive closes in one direction), and as long as the next close is 0.01 point away from your Strike, you will profit.

So with Vert.Spreads Options you do not need to predict the extension of the price move, it simplifies your forecast, it makes it more “robust” because you have one less variable to consider (i.e. no price variable).

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Worst. WW3. Ever.

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There are a couple of uncomfortable truths I recognize: one, this website is more popular when the market is down, and two, there is no guarantee anywhere that the market will ever fall again in a meaningful way. None.

As far as we know, the market will go up double digits every year for the next fifty years. It isn’t impossible, and considering how the market is shrugging off ALL bad news lately, it seems like almost a foregone conclusion.

Having said that, here is just a sampling of where the cash indexes stand, which is basically a few microns under lifetime highs. Quite a few ETFs are already there (having benefited from dividend adjustments), and in the case of the NASDAQ 100 index, its high today was literally 99.999% of the lifetime high from February 19th. Very close, but no cigar!

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