Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Nice Smile and Impressive Beard

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In my post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the historically bearish leaning stats over four of the next six trading days and looking for a modest retracement that we then saw. I also mentioned that the last of those bearish leaning days was today, and that tomorrow through Monday 16th lean strongly bullish. Wednesday and Friday next week are the day before and after the holiday on Thursday 19th June, and lean neutral to slightly bullish historically, and we would often see modest volume and trading ranges, particularly as Friday is also quad witching June opex.

This is the start of a bullish opportunity window that may last for the next month or so particularly as the very important case on the legality of most of Trump’s tariffs being reviewed by the Supreme Court has been delayed until the end of July, and the 90 day window that delayed most of those tariffs in April is currently scheduled to expire on July 9th, with a general 50% tariff on all important from the EU also scheduled to start that day. I am wondering whether we might see a further 30 day delay of that July 9th window into August to land after that key Supreme Court decision.

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Fake, Baby, Fake

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There are three things I dislike about the political chant “Drill, Baby, Drill.” (1) it’s childish; (2) it’s based on the Vietnam War anti-war slogan “Burn, baby, burn” which I doubt the dummies uttering the other phrase even realize (3) it implies the U.S. doesn’t produce nearly enough energy for its own needs, when in fact it is energy independent and is making more than ever.

Meh – – these political ninnies don’t care about the truth. Just their stupid chants.

Quantum Risks

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I read a lengthy piece (on /wsb, of all places) damning the entire quantum computing sector as an insane pipe dream and declaring that the white-hot companies in that space would all get wiped out. I asked good old grok to lay out what it considered the main risks in this field, and this is what it said:

Investing in quantum computing companies carries significant risks due to the field's nascent stage and technical complexity. Here are the top three risks:
  1. Technological Uncertainty and Slow Progress: Quantum computing is still in its early stages, with many technical hurdles to overcome, such as error rates, qubit stability, and scaling. There’s no guarantee that current approaches (e.g., superconducting qubits or trapped ions) will lead to commercially viable systems. Delays or failures in achieving practical quantum advantage could lead to prolonged losses or company failures, as seen with some early quantum startups.
  2. High Capital Burn and Financial Instability: Developing quantum hardware and software requires massive investment in R&D, specialized facilities, and talent. Many companies, especially smaller startups, have high cash burn rates with limited revenue streams, as commercial applications remain years away. This increases the risk of insolvency or dilution of shareholder value through frequent fundraising, as evidenced by financial struggles of firms like Rigetti Computing.
  3. Market Competition and Consolidation: The quantum computing landscape is crowded with well-funded players, including tech giants (e.g., IBM, Google, Microsoft) and startups (e.g., IonQ, PsiQuantum). Intense competition could lead to a winner-takes-most scenario, where only a few companies dominate. Smaller or less differentiated firms risk being outpaced or acquired at unfavorable terms, reducing returns for investors.
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Where Wealth is Growing

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Here’s an interesting diagram showing the percentage growth in millionaires over the decade 2014 to 2024. Some places warm the heart, such as former Eastern Bloc city Warsaw. Other places are no surprise, such as the Bay Area and Shanghai. And some places are kind of revolting like, say, Washington, D.C. I never knew that the purpose of government was to get rich, but that’s the new reality.