Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Commodities & the Next Major Macro Phase

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As the macro backdrop evolves, our investment orientation will include more commodity-related investments and speculations

It comes down to a question of when (not if, in my opinion) the broad markets will swing toward a coming inflation trade in a wider segment of the commodity world. Currently, per the work done in this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 889, and many reports that preceded it, we are in an interim disinflationary phase. This has been indicated by yield curves, among other measures we use.

The 10yr-2yr yield curve had steepened with a mildly disinflationary underpinning, as evidenced by the downtrends in its nominal 10- and 2-year yield components. Currently, as the curve travels sideways, neither steepening nor flattening, the question is whether Goldilocks may get an interim bid to end the year.

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