As an equity bear, my anxiety has made a shift. It has changed from:
- “This is unbearable. When’s this gonna end?!?!?”
to
- “This is great! When’s this gonna end?!?!?”
As you can see, I am malcontented.
It’s all about NVDA, of course. Wednesday evening, the bulls could be either breathing a sigh of relief and saying “TOLD YA SO!!” or, alternately, the bears could be thinking, “My God. A selloff that lasts more than twelve minutes. This is going to be incredible.” The tension is palpable.
For the moment, the achievement that has me standing on my seat and clapping is that, for the fifth day in a row, we’ve pushed to a lower low. The major resistance (visible in the extreme upper left of this chart) was challenged but not broken, and ever since then it’s been a steady bleed-off with lower lowers and (so far) lower highs. To call this “refreshing” would be as understated as declaring that Kristi Noem does, in fact, make use of cosmetic products.
What’s mildly amusing is all the “analysts” out there (none of whom have ever seen a bear market in their short lives, since we haven’t had one since 2008) trying to make sense of it all.
Here’s one chap, for example, who declared the plunging equity market as looking like “Mountains” (capitalized, I suppose, to give the moniker some heft) and then offered that “it would be a good entry point I don’t think we are going any lower from here” (sic).
You do you, crypto bro.
Speaking of crypto, one point of worry for the bears (being a preternatural worrywart, this is a specialty of mine), is how severely $BTC has been clobbered. It has to bounce back at some point, and that might give equities a bit of turgidity. It won’t last, of course, but I’m getting awfully spoiled to waking up to profits every morning. In any case, this useless Eric Trump-endorsed silliness has crumbled from nearly $130,000 to, briefly last night, below $90,000.
This teetering economy of ours is starting to claim its victims. I saw this item this morning, and I suspect this drama is going to be played out, in various ways, millions of times in the next couple of years:
I have found the most profitable thing for me is to walk the puppy. Yesterday was a perfectly example. The day had a totally lame start, and indeed the /NQ was up triple digits in no time. I walked the dog. The market stalled. And I bagged yet another Most Profitable Day of 2025.
Right now, on the other hand, I woke up very late (6:15 a.m.) and actually had the opportunity to cover IWM, GDX, and RGTI, all of which were mistakes, so I’m left with a mere 39 short positions in a market that is already softening up once more.
I’d better click on the leash and get down to the only profitable activity I can imagine before I screw up anything else. See ya later.
