Argh, I’m bugged at myself. I could’ve sworn I shorted FXI yesterday, but I failed to do so. It fell, just as I predicted and hoped. Blah!!!

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Argh, I’m bugged at myself. I could’ve sworn I shorted FXI yesterday, but I failed to do so. It fell, just as I predicted and hoped. Blah!!!

In these increasingly dark times, when the darkness even slithers onto my own website, the sight of these two refills my heart with joy and love.
In my last post on 24th November I was saying that the bull market on Crypto was likely over, that the bear market has likely started, and was looking at the next likely downside targets in the first big decline of that bear market.
I was also talking about a rally that might be starting, and we have been watching that rally on both Crypto and equities since then.
The rally on equities has been powerful and some all time highs have been retested but on Crypto the rally has been muted and modestly sized bear flags have been forming.
(more…)It’s a quiet morning so far. I’m just nipping and tucking my positions here and there. One item I’ve added is a short in Floor & Decor (FND), which is a fairly young stock but has a fantastic topping pattern and a P/E of over 30. I’ve set my stop loose at $67.

There are just ten trading days in 2025 after today, and this morning kicked off with some important data points. The very-delayed unemployment report showed the unemployment level continuing to rise (which the market considers its “all clear” signal to hack away at interest rates) while earnings were shrinking. It’s amusing that these are in direct contrast to the recent White House “More Jobs/Bigger Paychecks” schtick, but what’s more salient is that the actual unemployment rate is around 27% if you’re not living in fantasy land. Retail sales were also reported, which came in with a white-hot 0% increase.
