I trust bonds more than stocks to give us a sense as to what’s coming. It’s a massive market which usually sniffs out trouble far earlier than the bird-brained equity market, and, vastly more important to me, it isn’t subject to the political hucksterism of stocks.
The /ZB has benefited from the so-called “largely negotiated” peace talks, but it’s looking tired.
The daily chart of TLT is more instructive. We have blasted right up toward that price gap, and I have taken advantage of this by amping up my holdings of September 30 2026 $86 puts.
Likewise, early today, I re-entered my long position on TBT, which has its own price gap and was also closed-enough to filled to be satisfactory to me.
Looking at other large debt-based instruments, such as IEF, you can see how what should have been a magnificent base is completely rolling over. The failing United States, choking on its $40 trillion in debt, is going to be an increasingly unappealing place for countries to shove their cash.
It bears repeating, though: I have adjusted my positioning to avoid the kind of headline nonsense surrounding the stock market, which is at the mercy of politicians who desperately need to keep it at nosebleed levels in order to preserve their power. I seriously need to sidestep crap like this as much as I am able:
