Well, here we go again.
For the fourth of fifth time during this conflict, there was been a sudden spike of optimism, which sent equities flying higher. Let me stop right here and make two things plain (1) I absolutely would love to see peace in Ukraine (2) As for the bear market itself, long-term, I don’t think it would make much difference.
In other words, don’t get tricked into thinking that a peaceful Putin suddenly means we are at the start of a marvelous new multi-year bull market. On the contrary, I think that, no matter how sensational the news might be, the bear market would re-emerge in a matter of days, if not hours, following any truly good, sustainable news.
In the short-term, however, the reactions were absolutely expected after it was reported Putin had mentioned “positive developments” with respect to the conflict. Thus, as equities surge, gold has been crumbling, having lost about a hundred bucks since its recent peak.
And over in small-cap land, the /RTY futures, yet another bullish setup has appeared, and we are at the moment what would appear to be an interesting “buy” point.
HOWEVER………….and this is the most important thing I have to share right now: look at all the good setups in recent weeks. Note the following:
- Each one is punier than its predecessors;
- Although the first one actually did yield a rally, it sputtered out, and since them, all of them have been wet firecrackers.
As we enter into this new day in which, as I am typing this, EVERY single equity futures market is bright green, I humbly offer you this reminder of what I created a few weeks ago:
HALF AN HOUR INTO THE TRADING DAY:
