I posted charts on twitter yesterday afternoon showing a possible bull scenario and path back to retest the highs. As we have seen no key support break since those are still very much in play here. The SPX 5min chart I posted below shows the possible double-bottom forming and the megaphone resistance trendline that would be the obvious target on a strong bounce here. If we then saw a break up from the megaphone that should deliver a test of the highs. SPX 5min chart:
I have also drawn in that scenario on my SPX 60min chart this morning, and also added the possible falling wedge that everyone else is looking at, but I don’t rate highly unless we get a better third touch on the resistance trendline. Still in play though, and unless the bears manage to fill the gap and break trendline support immediately below, we are going to see a strong bounce soon. SPX 60min chart:
On the daily chart I haven’t much to add to what I said yesterday except to note that SPX has now put in five straight daily red candles. This is a record in the last twelve months, equaled only by a decline in December that on the sixth day put in a very marginal lower low and then spiked up hard to close considerably higher. Worth a mention here. SPX daily chart:
Strong support just under the H&S neckline was tested extensively yesterday but held so far. Bears need to break below it. Bulls need to break above the 50 hour MA, now at 1691, and hold above it. ES 60min chart:
COMPQ broke rising wedge support yesterday and seems to be forming a triangle. COMPQ 15min chart:
An IHS has formed and broken up on GC. The neckline was retested overnight and the target is in the 1355 area. Bulls need to develop that into a higher high to change the trend. GC 60min chart:
On CL the possible IHS I was looking at yesterday morning failed at gap resistance. This may have evolved into a double-bottom now but obviously there is strong resistance at yesterday’s high, which is the double-bottom trigger level. If it can break above the target is in the 105.7 area. CL 60min chart:
Apologies for the late post today. Something unexpected came up this morning. Statistically and in pattern terms I am leaning towards the bull case this morning, though I am prepared to be surprised and impressed if the bears manage to break through the strong support that they failed to break yesterday.
