If one is speculating on more downside for AMZN, time is of the essence.
Right now, two timeframes matter most: Monthly and Yearly.
Monthly closes Monday, yearly closes in two months; both right around the corner.
If you’re in Bear’s camp, nothing could be better than delivering a deadly blow at year’s end. Let’s look at what it will take to deliver the blow.
Amazon hasn’t lost a yearly candle since 2014. Nine years later, 2021 was a near miss, up only by a ting.
Not so, 2022: AMZN has been down every quarter since January.
The yearly chart is glorious. And right now, negative.
Price has lost three major uptrend lines, and the year’s-end blow will be the fail of the bottom blue trendline from the 1997 bottom.
To keep the yearly candle in loser territory, the monthly matters and it closes on Hallowed Monday.
Price is currently below both the 1999 and 1997 trendlines, and must close that way for Bear to get her year’s-end toast.
What happens next to help or hinder Bear’s hope, happens today with the weekly close. Price needn’t close below the 1997 trendline, but does need to close under the 1999 one.
Two charts settle directly: The weekly today and the monthly on Monday. The third and potentially final blow doesn’t come until after Christmas.
Happy Holidays!
