Over the past five weeks, the normally boring bond fund TLT has ripped 17% higher, and it has pushed over its medium-term descending trendline today. Bond bulls have been on fire lately, and all the chatter is about multiple interest cuts in 2024 (which, let’s face it, isn’t because the economy is going to be going great, but will be a bid to stoke the coals).
Indeed, everything interest-sensitive has strapped on its booster rockets. The also-normally-boring municipal bond fund MUB has been acting like a biotech startup lately, although I would point out it is reaching what could be a level of resistance (the dashed line).
In spite of bond’s strength, I honestly do not think this is some grand new bull market for them. the closer we get to the resistance line on the /ZB, shown below, the less likely I think it is that bonds are going to push much higher. True, we may have seen a generational bottom in bonds, but this rally has all the markings of a dead cat bounce (which is appropriate, since Sloper DCB called this bond rally so well).
