Every single position I have is a bearish one. Everything I’ve been talking and writing about is coming true. The market is in a free-fall, and the moment it opens, my portfolio will be worth a lot more.
Having said that, let’s explore what an inveterate screw-up I am, and we’ll begin with Rule 8 from my Trading Rules:
VIII. EMOTIONAL AWARENESS IS YOUR GREATEST ASSET – Feeling super-confident and giddy? You should probably be in all cash. Feeling demoralized, frustrated, and out of synch? You’re probably close to a great entry point.
Let us also examine a comment I made yesterday, which is definitely out of character of what I’ve been saying for a long time:
The wisest among you took that as a cue to sell everything you own, including your house, and buy equity puts. It’s as simple as can be. I start bitching loudly about the market, and believe me, show time is around the corner.
What’s most upsetting to me is that the kinds of stuff I’ve been shorting this week – – and taking small losses on every single time – – has turned out to be the biggest winners. Here are the symbols that leap to mind:
- AAPL
- XOP
- COP
- GDX
- GDXJ
- GLD
- SLV
- NEM
- CNQ
Broadly speaking, I was convinced that energy and precious metals were in for a thrashing, but every single time I got scorched. Finally, yesterday – – and I made a big stink about this on my live program – – I declared that I was done fighting commodities.
And, so, this morning, we have crude oil doing the following:
And as for silver, which I specifically targeted as vulnerable:
Let’s just say that the 50% cash I have in my portfolios would be awfully nice to be in XOP and SLV shorts instead of freakin’ cash. Carl, I think, expresses it best:
Let’s be a little fair to poor old Tim, however. Ten minutes into the Make America Wealthy Again circus, when the /ES was up nearly 100 points, the ONLY solace I had was all that cash sitting in my account. Umm, a few minutes later, though, those feelings did a 180.
Anyway, today and tomorrow are going to be insane. Let’s attempt to keep our wits about us, as the /VX suggests below. And, above all else, when you see my whining and bitching and complaining, please understand that while I am unable to take advantage of my own cues, you most certainly are.
