In my last post on Tuesday I was looking at the prospects for this rally on US equity indices and the first thing to say is that the tariff reprieve that triggered this rally still looks partial, temporary and fragile and that the new tariffs currently being trailed by the administration as coming soon on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may well kill this rally when they start being implemented and that may well start soon.

The other thing I’d mention here is that while there are a lot of negotiations going on with US trading partners, it does appear that the bottom line for this administration seems to be a baseline tariff level at 10% across the board, with an additional 15% across the board on steel, aluminum, cars and perhaps soon tariffs other goods such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that may also not be negotiable.