Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Uncertain Smile

By -

In my posts last week on Wednesday and Friday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here. That is proceeding slowly but I was thinking then that at minimum this rally would ideally last a week or two, and I think the odds of that look decent. The rally will be a week old tomorrow lunchtime, this is a holiday week and while there has been much talk of further tariffs coming soon, these have not yet been implemented.

I did say as well last week though that this tariff reprieve was partial, temporary and fragile, and that remains the case. If the new tariffs being trailed by the administration on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals start hitting next week then this rally may be over, and a new leg down may begin.

(more…)

Gold Stocks & Gold/Silver Ratio

By -

Many gold bugs fail to understand the interplay between gold stocks and the Gold/Silver ratio

Misconception: noun; a view or opinion that is incorrect, based on faulty thinking or understanding

It has never failed. After the blessed 2001-2004 period the “misconceptions” game took over the precious metals as silver took leadership over gold (2004-2007), gold under-performed many commodities and “inflation trades” and the HUI/Gold ratio topped and declined for a long dirt nap, in which it is still snoozing.

That was damage done to the gold mining sector’s internals (even as it continued to rise nominally) by a pervasive inflated macro that was working to the benefit, however moderately, of economies. The HUI/Gold ratio (HGR) declined as it should have.

(more…)