This is basically how I’ve been feeling about the market for the past six trading days:
Last Monday, the 19th, was the last rock’em, sock’em down day we’ve had on the market. Since then, it’s been a real grind, plus there have been a couple of real stinkers lately for me.
There was HON this morning (for which I had far too big a position) and then, this evening, Seagate (STX). The ONLY good thing I can say about this is that the position is sensibly sized (VERY small percentage of my portfolio), so the pop won’t hurt me too badly. Here’s what STX is doing, post-earnings. Ugh!
Depending on how the actual price goes tomorrow, I might talk myself into toughing it out. After all, this exactly same stock pulled the same stunt last time. That is to say: (1) beautiful reversal pattern, (2) plunge, (3) retracement, (4) an annoying push back INTO the pattern, (5) ultimately, a hard sink beneath it.
Truth to tell, though, I probably don’t want to stick around in this unless the big pop shown above substantially weakens by the morning.
More broadly speaking, I have been waiting with growing impatience for the counter-trend rally to stop. It’s really pretty gruesome stuff to endure. Importantly, the /ES is very close to its Fibonacci (circled) and, incredibly, we are now trading where we were on April 2nd, before any tariffs were even announced!
Still, I’ve been getting lighter……and lighter………..and lighter still. As of Tuesday’s close, my portfolio is about as thin as Karen Carpenter, with a mere 68% of my cash committed to positions (and, I will hasten to add, only equity positions; I’m completely out of options trading for the foreseeable future).
In sum, I would direct your attention to Rule VIII of my Trading Rules page, which is precisely what I’m feeling like right now.
