After the big push higher yesterday, equity futures are docile this morning. Let’s review the /RTY over the past twenty-four hours or so………..
What is represented above is as follows:
- the market had already moved higher substantially based on the EU trade war pause, but the moment the cash market opened, the /RTY plunged, erasing a good portion of its pop
- annoyingly, with the green arrow, because it was a total fake-out, the market then shook off that initial weakness and went rocketing to session highs, closing pretty much at the peak
- it then spent hours and hours, blue arrow, burning off a portion of that rise, once again giving the beleaguered bears some hope
- lastly, shown with the orange arrow, stock futures dispatched with that bit of bear hope, thrusting toward the high from the prior day
Exasperating, I’d say! I feel better being lightly positioned.
Just to continue with my theme of being perturbed, the crude oil market remains completely raspy, which tends to be its nature. Shown below over a period of many months, the crude oil market illustrates being range-bound in chunks, vaulting from range to range. We are presenting banging around a zone in the high 50s and low 60s that we’ve been trading since we dropped into it on April 4.
In spite of this, I think the VIX has the real message. The orange rectangle represents a powerful base that has been building for about two years, with a couple of very powerful thrusts shown in red, the first from July of last year and the second from the all-too-brief trade wars of April 2025. Each time those misfits were beaten back into submission, but it’s only a matter of time before reality rears its hideous head once more. Volatility is back down to the “all is well” level, and……….all isn’t well.
Dull as the pre-market is, excitemenet is promised by way of the NVDA earnings, which comes out shortly after today’s close.
This is my last full day in Polynesia, with Bear Force One launching Thursday night for my return to the Bay Area. We’ll see if a plane ride is what it takes to crack this market.
