Over the three weeks that this war has been going on, there has been one consistent event: the President’s persistent pledges that this whole thing was going to be over Real Soon Now or that, indeed, it was already over. In point of fact, Trump expressed outrage that Iran was still shooting at ships in the Strait since it wasn’t “fair” that they do that since the war was already won (in “the first hour“, by his own account).
To anyone and everyone buying stocks based on these pledges of the conflict’s imminent completion, please meditate for a moment on this item I remember so well from March 2020:
What I’m trying to ask is……….are you serious?
Speaking of which, during my tastylive show yesterday, I expressed puzzlement as to why the market had suddenly blasted higher. I figured Iran had surrendered or something.
Nope: it was nothing more than Bibi promising that they’d help get the Strait open again. Ummm…….a promise by Bibi. That’s worth about as much as used t.p. you’d find floating in a bowl. I cannot BELIEVE people gobble up the promises of these clowns.
In any event, as you can plainly see with the /ES chart, the entirety of the Bibi excitement was flushed away (like the aforementioned t.p.) once people came to their senses, and the market even briefly punched below support, only to be defended against mightily by the Powers That Be that well recognize once this top is complete, it’s all, all, all over.
It’s the same top I’ve been harping on all week, folks, and it’s a huge one, spanning back over half a year. We are SO close, but it is mightily defended. As the proud owner of SPY $660 puts which expire in (checks watch) seven hours, I’d really appreciate a nice tumble today.
I’m going to walk my beloved canines now in the morning darkness, but I’ll see you soon after we get some market action going. In the meanwhile………..
