After the market closed today, once he got all his short-dated call positions in place, Trump sent out his 57th “War is Over!!” declaration of the past three weeks:
These ludicrous pontifications are quickly becoming comic. It seems that every single day this is some variant of “We won the war in the first hour” nonsense coming from this – – this – – thing – – utterly failing to acknowledge that if Iran is still lobbing drones and missiles at targets, the war is still very much on.
The investing public is none too bright, however, and they keep falling for this nonsense every single stinking time.
Early last week, Trump pulled one of his “war is over” stunts, and the market soared for two days before crumbling on itself. On Thursday, Trump’s master Bibi did the same thing, declaring that Israel was going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, which also sent equities blasting higher instantly.
And then, of course, after Friday’s close, we got Trump’s “we’re so, so, so close” schtick, which compelled after hours trading on the SPY to rip higher a full 1.5% above the lows for the day.
Bitcoin, likewise, is strengthening with the “Risk ON!” news.
I’m actually patting myself on the back a bit on this news, because near the end of Friday, I decided to trim my exposure from 275% (I’m serious) to about 150%. In particular:
- I sold my BITI (short Bitcoin) position completely
- I trimmed my SPY short, my largest position, by half
- I likewise trimmed my QQQ short by half
- I slightly trimmed a couple of long-dated options
Over the course of the past few weeks, I have shorted into strength rather consistently.
Looking at the chart of the S&P below, which has already shed over 8% from its price peak, I can absolutely see the potential for a meaningful bounce, which sucks if one has a ton of shorts on like I do. On the other hand, with cash at the ready, I can likewise ride out the storm and amp up positions at better prices based on the fact that those bidding stocks higher are simple brain-dead in doing so and will discover the error of their ways soon enough.
Keep declaring the war won, puddin’ head. It’s just more grist for the mill.
