Happy New Week, everyone. This is a shortened week (although at least this time the holiday is one I respect, so it’s not quite so awful), so we only get four days of war-driven lunacy to trade.
I was bracing myself all night long for the Monday Morning Lie, traumatized as I was by what happened precisely one week ago. On Sunday, the market gapped down fairly hard (left arrow) but then spent all night long climbing. Finally, once again a couple of hours before the opening bell, the Pre-Market Fib was launched, and the market spiked (right arrow).
If you haven’t seen it already, here it is, in all of its childish and grammatically incorrect glory.
Incidentally, if you haven’t quite put together the situation with the parties with whom the President is ostensibly speaking, this should clear it right up:
And as for the macho posturing………
What’s mesmerizing to me is how quickly the market is catching on the to the fact that the President’s declarations don’t mean shit. Kindly compare the spike from last Monday’s pre-open lie (huge spike) to what happened just now (right side; feel free to use a magnifying glass if necessary). It’s like side-by-side nudes of John Holmes and Donald J. Trump.
I mean, the bumbling oaf can’t even tease out the difference between “incursion” and “excursion“, so our expectations should probably remain low.
I am fully expecting every single short I’ve got to get some heat at the opening bell, although NOTHING like a week ago. My one and only long position, palladium, to which I dedicated 100% of one of my accounts on Friday, will be my silver lining.
I have spent a lot of time over the weekend considering how to hedge. Do I establish a huge SPY long position to ride out the wave and ameliorate the heat my shorts will take, or do I simply get “less short“?
I’m still not entirely sure, although at the moment I’m inclined to balance things out with a long SPY position.
Finally, I sketched out on the breakfast table my battle plan for the next couple of weeks. Whether this actually unfolds like this remains to be seen, although if it does, I’ll never shut up about it. In any case, it is visible to all Gold and Platinum members. As for everyone else, good luck out there!
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