Bears delivered the retracement that was likely yesterday, but it was more of a being doorstepped by a couple of polite Jehovah’s Witnesses retrace rather than the bloody revolution that the bears were hoping for.
Was enough damage done to suggest that my possible 2070 retest is still on the table? There was some damage, with SPX closing the day clearly below the 5dma and the 50 hour MA. The close exactly on the daily middle band was bullish, though a pinocchio through it to test support that was recovered by the end of tomorrow would be fine here. It’s very much a maybe, though it has been bolstered by the monthly pivot on ES for December coming in at 2064.80. SPX daily chart:
In the short term the triangle I’ve drawn in on the chart below is what I’m watching. I posted this for theartofchart.net subscribers earlier this morning and since then the triangle has broken up, possibly a false break, and then returned to test triangle support. If the triangle now breaks down then the triangle target would be in the 2068.5 ES area, very close to that 2070 SPX level and just above the ES monthly pivot at 2064.80. If ES recovers back over 2092 then the chances are that ES is heading to the 2108 area (approx 2110 SPX). Whichever way this triangle resolves it will very likely entirely retrace the thrust out of the triangle after that thrust is completed, so if we do test that 2070 SPX area support, it’s likely to hold. The same applies to a retest of the 2116 SPX high on a break up. ES 15min chart:
Kind of a whippy start today. There’s a lot of news this week so it may be a very whippy week.
