Yesterday started with a perfect hard rejection at my wedge resistance at 1947, but after a 33 handle decline SPX reversed back up and broke wedge resistance. At this stage I’m looking for a reversal pattern of course, and in the absence of the retest of the lows that didn’t happen yesterday, it is still very much a possibility that the lows will still need to be retested to make the second low of a double bottom.
The pattern setup from the low isn’t that clear, but so far it looks a lot like a rising wedge that would be a likely bear flag on the bigger picture, On a break below wedge support, at 1922.5 at the time of writing, the bear flag target would be either a retest of the low or the full flag target would be in the 1790-1800 area. I’d be leaning strongly towards a retest of the low or a marginal new low. SPX 60min chart:
The setup on ES is another possible bear flag forming or double bottom. ES 60min chart:
I was thinking yesterday that a retest of the low was likely before a big rally can get started. I’m still thinking that.
