ES is trading in a tight range. 1102 ES has turned into solid support
since being broken earlier this week and on the upside we have strong
resistance at 1115 ES, a level that took a long time to break through at
the end of 2009. A break in either direction will probably define the
next couple of weeks.
If we do break down through 1102 ES, I'm seeing some weak rising
trendline support at 1096 ES, but if we break down through that, then
the downside looks wide open again:
Some of the USD currency pairs are looking fairly bullish today. AUDUSD
has broken up from a recent ascending triangle with a target of 88:
GBPUSD has broken the neckline of an H&S indicating to the top
of the current broadening ascending wedge in the 1.50 area. The RSI
looks rather overbought though and we may see a retracement first:
One interesting chart showing potential weakness, though
not at all correlated with equities, is the chart for gas, with a rising
wedge that is running out of road now
Overall the picture looks bullish on balance, but the key in my view is
the range on ES. We'll break out of it one way or the other soon, and
when we do, I'm expecting a big move.
I've really been enjoying writing these daily market
analyses every day for the last three months, but I've been spending too
much time on it, and less time on reading and trading as a result. I
need to rebalance my time better, and I also have a very busy offline
summer looming, so I'm going to keep posting an interesting chart most
days, but I'm only going to do a serious write-up once or twice a week.
