Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Tinder Box

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By Biiwii

tinder box to ignite stock market sentiment rally?We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately. As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least.

We have successfully followed a plan every step of the way… 1. down from the August breakdown, 2. up on the bounce to SPX 1975 or 2040 (hit 2020) and now 3. down to a test of the October 2014 / August 2015 lows, which is a decision point between a bounce or an entry into a bear market (by making a lower low to October 2014).

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Gold vs…

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By Biiwii

Note: Well, a normal post became embittered and vitriolic by the end. What better place to post it than SoH, a renowned bullshit-free zone?

Note: Hey, go check out the new NFTRH.com. I think it’s pretty cool.

An update on Gold vs. stock markets, as at yesterday’s close. These charts have improved today, but there is still no conclusive change in trend in gold vs. stock markets. There could be some short-term chop if for example, SPX decides to rise again (I am not necessarily buying – or should I say selling? – today’s post-FOMC drop, though I have started to position that way, while holding a few longs that are doing just fine today) to the upside target of 2040 +/-.

[confusing language alert:  the above attempts to say that I still hold a few longs but started shorting the market on yesterday’s post-FOMC hysterics] (more…)

FOMC: Crystal Ball Time

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By Biiwii

Let me gaze into my crystal ball, with the confidence of a genuine guru* and the vision of a mystical Swami. Sifting through my notes about leading indicators, low unemployment, but also cratering public confidence, I see… (not that you should give a damn what one faulty little participant sees)… but bear with me now as I render the great forecast…

I see the Federal Reserve folding again today, perhaps with some stern words imploring us to stay vigilant for a rate hike coming before year end. In this scenario another small chink in the armor of impenetrable post-2011 confidence in these clowns would be had.

clowncar, brought to you by FOMC

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Leading and Other Indicators: Time to Hike?

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According to the amalgamation of ‘Leading Indicators’ to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree’s post on the subject.

leading indicators

It is and has been also time to hike based on employment numbers. This was supposed to be the last thing to get squared away before normalization, wasn’t it? LI is thought to lead inflation in the economy, which has thus far been held in check by a global deflation that is devouring funny munny sprayed from global policy hoses.

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“No Recession, But…”

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By Biiwii

Excerpted from the September 13 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 360…

I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming “Great Recession” (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Here is what economists think today (ref. Bloomberg article): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/here-s-when-economists-expect-to-see-the-next-u-s-recession. 2018 it is, according to a majority of buttoned down dart throwers.

recession predictions by economists, from Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg News Survey

What were they saying in December 2007? Let’s take a look, also from Bloomberg…

(Dec. 17, 2007): No Recession, But… http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2007-12-19/no-recession-but. (more…)