Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Sentiment Update

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By Biiwii

In the last 2 NFTRH editions, we noted extremely over bearish market sentiment conditions in Rydex bull/bear fund allocations and in Small Speculators’ net short positions. These sentiment indicators have been reset to traditional correction-ending, even bear market-ending levels. That’s the reality.

The latter especially, has been a reliable contrary indicator. Basically, the Small Specs have never been right at important market turns. For instance, they were heavily net short in the late 1990’s but by the time the market topped in 2000, they had covered and become net long. They have reliably been a contrary indicator all along the current bull market as well, going net short at each correction bottom, post 2009.

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Gold-Silver Ratio in Gear

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By Biiwii

Now that the US stock market has gotten in sync with the rest of the world in its ups and downs, it also joins the rest of the world in generally (and loosely; it’s not a minute-by-minute relationship) being inverse to the Gold-Silver ratio (GSR, AKA the “metallic credit spread” –Hoye).

Here is the daily view of the GSR, showing a gap up and spike that came with the stock market’s big disturbance and a consolidation down that has come with its relief bounce. This is a bullish chart and so, it is a short-term bearish chart for US and global stocks. GSR broke out and is bullish while above the MA 50’s, MACD and RSI are positive and AROON is trend up.

gold-silver ratio, daily

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The Bear Market Everyone Saw Coming

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By Biiwii

The title lets you know where this article is going. For such a routine correction in the US stock market, the Psych/Sentiment backdrop has gotten way out of whack. Do some analysis on Rydex Bull/Bear fund allocations among investors and you will find a historic knee jerk reaction into bear funds over bull funds (by those who still use Rydex funds).

Go do a Google Trends search on ‘stock market crash’ or ‘bear market’ and you get the following results, showing a big rise in interest among the public.

Market sentiment: stock market crash

Market sentiment: bear market

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Man, That’s Cheesy…

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By Biiwii

After the now-famous WSJ post, it seemed as if a bottom had just been called in gold…

Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock

It seemed that the elements were in place for a contrarian rally if not bull market bottom. Along with negative gold items routinely appearing in the financial media and a Commitment of Traders structure that had become very bullish, gold sentiment was bleak by indicators we track in NFTRH.

My how a 6% rally with an accompanying stock market down spike have changed things…

sinclair, gold sentiment still not ready
Click for the video @ YouTube

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