Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold’s Ratio Signals

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A brief snapshot of counter-cyclical gold’s macro signals vs. other metals (and broad commodities) that are more positively correlated to economies, using weekly charts…

Each week NFTRH updates many charts of nominal US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and currencies over multiple time frames. But we also cover economic data and indicators, with the first macro chart below (Palladium vs. Gold) still barely holding its economic ‘UP’ signal from January, 2013. At that time a coming economic up phase did not seem likely, but PALL-Gold and fundamental information gleaned from a personal source in the Semiconductor Equipment sector gave us a good risk vs. reward on that stance.

While it can be argued that using an indicator like Palladium (positive economic correlation) to Gold (counter cyclical) is subject to the discrete supply/demand fundamentals of the two assets, it has worked to signal up and down economic phases, with the most recent shown in Q1 2013 (green arrow). This indicator has been whipsawing since topping out a year ago and the moving averages are near a trigger point.

pall.gold

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Is Gold Hated Enough?

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By Biiwii

goldAn article by Mark Hulbert jogged the title’s question into my mind:

This Bear Market in Gold Still Has too Many Bulls

With respect to the reasons for owning gold, I never flinch when taking a long-term value perspective. In the monetary and financial world gold is insurance and insurance is something you buy, but hope to never need. The value of insurance is in one of its definitions: “a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality”.

It is good news that this ‘thing’ has not been needed as modern policy making has worked to mostly desired effects, as asset markets have been pumped by inflationary policies that have not (yet) had a commensurate level of risk discovery.

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Banks, Gold & Yields

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[edit] the post started as a simple thing and ended after getting way too involved. so much the better…

An update of the situation on the Banks, the anti-Banks (gold) and the yield relationships that would help define their fates.

The Bank index is breaking through resistance this week while gold remains in Palookaville. Note to certain bloggers out there who would nitpick: the arrows are not meant to line up (green to red); they are meant to show support and resistance for the Banks’ lows and Gold’s highs, respectively.

bkx.gold

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Gold Sector, Big Picture

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Following is a reprint of the latest free eLetter that you can sign up for as an introduction to Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH), our more in-depth market management service.

Big Picture Gold Sector Update

On shorter time frames the gold sector has been viewed as being on an ‘anti-USD’ inflation bounce. This bounce scenario in gold stocks and commodities took a hit last week with the US dollar’s strong bounce.

In NFTRH we are managing things on both short and long time frames, with the short-term currently tied to movements in the USD. On the long-term however, things appear to be setting up for the next big macro play. The following charts are used for big picture updates to give perspective to the shorter-term work we do each week in NFTRH.

Gold Sector Update (Big Picture) (more…)