Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The media pounded and pounded the yield curve’s inversion as a signal about an imminent economic recession. We have noted again and again that it is not the yield curve flattening to inversion that brings the pain, but instead, the subsequent yield curve steepener and un-inversion. From the September 17 post on the matter:
(more…)I’ve used this chart repeatedly to show the bear markets that occurred in 2000 and 2007, following 2yr/T-bill yield divergences.
It is one of the most interesting aspects of precious metals investing/trading. This buy/sell for the wrong reasons phenomenon. Many years ago I came up with the graphic below to illustrate how advisers, analysts and their herds focus on the wrong reasons for being bullish on gold miners.
(more…)I’ll begin this post by noting that I love charts. I began my market journey using charts, and I have noted over the years that technical analysis is a great tool to have in a trader’s or investor’s tool box. So many times over the years has an existing trend kept me patient despite a shorter-term move to the contrary. So many times have breakdowns of technical parameters kept me from catastrophic losses, or holds of said parameters kept me in the game for large profits. In short, I am one of these guys…
Without digging up too much theory and analysis from the past, let’s simply note that gold has more counter-cyclical character than most any other asset other than Treasury bonds and the US dollar. That is because when economic stress increases (and little about today’s August Payrolls report indicates otherwise) and cyclical, risk ‘on’ markets start to react to that stress, refuge-seeking herds tend to flock into the world’s reserve currency (to the extent the world has not yet de-Dollarized) and US Treasury bonds (to the extent that the world has not yet de-Treasuryized).
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