Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Shorting the Broad Stock Market

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Probably Not the Best Way to Go

If you want to short the stock market, it may be best to be focused rather than painting with a broad brush……..

The US stock market has been undergoing internal rotations lately. We anticipated potential rotations to the more cyclical areas like Energy and Materials, as opposed to the Tech/Growth areas that Goldilocks has favored for most of the last year (also as anticipated, a year ago).

As for Energy and Materials, per the NFTRH Trade Log the Energy sector (XLE) was added on 2.8.24 and the Materials sector (XLB) was viewed as technically quite bullish in NFTRH 798 (2.25.24) and added per the Trade Log on 2.26.24, with an ultimate upside target well higher than the current level.

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Ponzi Economy, 2024

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NFTRH 799’s opening segment illustrating unsustainable debt leverage

Below is an exercise that considers real economic/macro/market indicators and one writer’s view of what is in play this election year. I avoid becoming enmeshed in politics like I avoid the plague. But this is probably the most important, not to mention bizarre, scary and angry election year ever. Now think about the robo-expansion of debt (what’s a few more $Trillion for the cause, eh?) at this crucial time. There is not a partisan bone in my body because I don’t believe in the system itself, let alone either of the modern versions of the parties dominating that system.

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Gold is the Anti-Bubble

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Gold price still disappointing speculators, but it’s doing as it should do

Back in August I wrote an article called Gold: The Anti-Bubble. The point being that if you want to consider an asset to be sound value in a world of ongoing plays boosted by inflationary policy, speculating upon it – especially at a time when the cyclical risk ‘on’ trades are in upside momentum mode – is illogical. As are expectations for it to perform up to par with said bubble beneficiaries (as noted previously, I define the bubble as monetary and fiscal policy and the stock market as a direct beneficiary) as long as… It’s a Bubble, and It’s Intact.

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US Stock Market – In Need of a Correction

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The US stock market (SPX) is overbought and vulnerable in the near-term

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 797:

The US stock market is in need of a correction. Now, will it get one?

On the CPI down day I looked at the market and decided to leave well enough alone because of course they were going to gun it to punish anyone shorting that down day on supposedly bad news (pumping up the hawkish Fed). But I looked at the gap near the all-time highs on the daily chart of SPX and thought ‘hmm, if they close that gap maybe give it a shot…’. They closed the gap and I gave it a shot.

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