The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure
We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world…
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 Yield Curve
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Fear Not, My Buggish Friends
Gold Stocks vs. SPX
The gold stock sector is on the verge of taking back the macro, and taking leadership over the broad SPX
This post is prompted by a post I saw on X, highlighting a TA on CNBC who noted the inverted H&S that HUI is establishing in ratio to SPX. The follow-on discussion included some fretting that the contrarian negatives of being highlighted on CNBC are a clear and present danger.
(more…)Optimal Gold Stock Macro Evolving
The macro setup for gold stocks is evolving into something that will surprise many after decades of poor fundamentals
I don’t make a habit of pumping the most frustrating stock sector on the planet just for the sake of it. I have made a habit of discussing why, since 2003, the macro market backdrop has been adversarial to gold stocks much more often than not. By extension, internal indicators like the HUI/Gold Ratio have rightly been long-term bearish.
(more…)Sahm Is Not a Sham
..but There Is Much More To The Picture As Our Long Held Plan Engages
The Sahm Rule is getting airplay, but Sahm is not what I am… it is just one unexceptional and somewhat lagging indicator to the coming recession
“We are pointed toward recessionary dynamics”… well, no shit Sherlock.
Claudia Sahm talks about the “big lever still to pull” by the Fed. That being a plethora of interest rate cuts. Sahm talks about the unemployment rate, and other things indicative of recession. Article with video:
Financial Market Stress: Not Yet, But……….
So here is the thing. During a bull market or very bullish phase, indicators give the all-clear. Come on in, the water’s fine! Investors are always going to be complacent and market/economic signals at least stable (or quite positive) at market tops. It’s the way the markets work. Recall 2000 and 2007. As Steven King would say, “nope, nothin’ wrong here.”
This chart from MacroMicro illustrates the point. During a bull phase in the markets things are fine… fine… fine… and then suddenly, out of nowhere, NOT fine. So pictures like this tell us what we already know; the market is bullish and the waters are calm.
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