Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Slow Boiling Bull Frogs

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PREFACE FROM TIM: The spiffy new site is absolutely crushing our server pool, so slowness (and occasional downtime) have been happening this morning. After the close today, we are going to VASTLY expand our server pool, so please don’t be shocked to see Slope completely down. I promise that no harm will come to your computer, including spontaneously bursting into flames. Just keep being patient, Slopers!

The following is part of the Market Sentiment segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 498. I’ve given it a funny name that would be less funny for a lot of people if the scenario actually plays out.

Slow Boiling Bull Frogs

Last week we reviewed Commercial Hedgers data that was bullish for the stock market and other sentiment data points that were not. The picture was mixed and our view was that a bounce (to short into, if you are bearish) was likely.

Refining that a bit, we reintroduce the ‘M’ retest possibility. It’s not a call or even a favored outcome since the stock market is still generally below markers like the SMA 50 and a series of declining highs. But as Apple showed us last week, this pig can scream higher at any time that animal spirits get unleashed. (more…)

Macro Changes for Gold and Stocks

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Since early 2016 we have been carrying forward a theme illustrating that until the macro trends in place since 2011 change, the situation would be as is, stocks trending up and the precious metals in consolidation/correction. The current trends were kicked off symbolically, and functionally to a degree, by the Fed’s concoction of Operation Twist, a plan with the expressed goal of manipulating the macro (or in the Fed’s word, “sanitizing” inflation signals). Until this year it has been the gift that keeps on giving to unquestioningly bullish stock market participants.

We have also carried a theme forward that in order for a bull view to be widely recognized in gold, a bear view or at least a relative bear view will need to come about on the stock market, whether that means stocks rise nominally or not (ref. 2003-2007 when stocks rose nominally, but declined in terms of gold). (more…)

A Gold Sector Fundamental View

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goldpanningWith gold testing its 200 day moving average this morning I thought I’d reproduce the first part of the precious metals segment from week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 497), including a daily chart of gold at the end showing the anticipated SMA 200 test.

[edit] Steve Saville updates gold’s ‘true fundamentals’ here. Notice at the end what is not considered fundamentally material.

Precious Metals

We have done a lot of work delineating what the best investment environment would be for gold and especially the gold mining sector. The gold miners leverage (for better or worse) gold’s performance vs. cyclical items like stocks, commodities and materials. Gold vs. stocks is a macro fundamental indicator on investor confidence, or lack thereof. Gold vs. Energy and Materials are gold sector fundamentals directly informing a gold mining company’s bottom line performance (their product vs. mining cost inputs). (more…)

About Those Medical Device Companies

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Yesterday we took a look at the bullish SYK breakout and the bullish chart of the Medical Device iShares (IHI). So here is the thing; bullish stocks are one thing and sound business is another. Many of these device/equipment companies have long-standing and sound businesses.

But yet another thing is valuation. In combing through IHI’s holdings today, looking at charts, business specifics and P/E & P/S I am struck by how over valued and over played the sector is by the suits, who evidently have read my many assertions that the sector is stable during economic soft patches. Just kidding, but… Wall Street loves themselves some medical device companies these days. IHI’s holdings… (more…)