Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Gold Sector Fundamental View

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goldpanningWith gold testing its 200 day moving average this morning I thought I’d reproduce the first part of the precious metals segment from week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 497), including a daily chart of gold at the end showing the anticipated SMA 200 test.

[edit] Steve Saville updates gold’s ‘true fundamentals’ here. Notice at the end what is not considered fundamentally material.

Precious Metals

We have done a lot of work delineating what the best investment environment would be for gold and especially the gold mining sector. The gold miners leverage (for better or worse) gold’s performance vs. cyclical items like stocks, commodities and materials. Gold vs. stocks is a macro fundamental indicator on investor confidence, or lack thereof. Gold vs. Energy and Materials are gold sector fundamentals directly informing a gold mining company’s bottom line performance (their product vs. mining cost inputs). (more…)

About Those Medical Device Companies

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Yesterday we took a look at the bullish SYK breakout and the bullish chart of the Medical Device iShares (IHI). So here is the thing; bullish stocks are one thing and sound business is another. Many of these device/equipment companies have long-standing and sound businesses.

But yet another thing is valuation. In combing through IHI’s holdings today, looking at charts, business specifics and P/E & P/S I am struck by how over valued and over played the sector is by the suits, who evidently have read my many assertions that the sector is stable during economic soft patches. Just kidding, but… Wall Street loves themselves some medical device companies these days. IHI’s holdings… (more…)

Inflation, With a Shelf Life

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The following is excerpted from NFTRH 496‘s US & Global Market Indicators & Internals segment. It took on a life of its own, considering what you see below is not even half the segment, which itself is not usually a primary aspect of the NFTRH service.

For the last few weeks we’ve used the conditions noted in the graphic below as a guide. Well, the ‘inflation trade’ (IT) popped last week and that included cyclical metals (as well as silver) ramming upward vs. gold and TIP rising vs. TLT & IEF.

As for credit conditions, there is little imminently raising caution flags as commercial lending and risk taking (as indicated by high yield junk bonds) continue apace, but the note still stands on the bigger picture as the credit system and money supply are gumming up with the Fed in quantitative and Fed Funds tightening mode while the velocity of money in the economy maintains a secular downtrend. (more…)

As the Macro Turns…

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We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved:

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

  1. Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend.
  2. Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and 30yr yield to 3.3%): Destinations reached!
  3. Amigo #3 (also known as the slower, dumber Amigo, the 10yr-2yr Yield Curve): Still on his journey, flattening. The trouble would be indicated by steepening.

(more…)