Okay, so the theme is that on the macro 3 events may come together to signal a big climax, leading to change.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Taxes, Macro Signals, Seasonality, US Stocks and Gold Miners
While politicians hammer out the details it is generally accepted that corporations and by extension the investor and asset owner classes are targeted for benefits under the coming Republican tax plan. The logical implication of that beneficial treatment is that barring a market meltdown in the interim, people looking to unload stock positions and take profits would tend to wait until January in hopes of gaining the 2018 tax benefit vs. 2017’s tax code.
Among the under performing sectors subject to tax loss selling in late 2017 I have selected the gold miners for this post because they tend to be counter-cyclical and “in the mirror” to the broad risk ‘on’ asset party currently ongoing. We have noted again and again that with the asset party in full swing the miners’ fundamentals cannot possibly look good, and at face value they don’t. Sector fundamentals like gold/oil and gold/materials ratios are not good and macro fundamentals like gold vs. stock markets, the economy (which is relatively strong) and the yield curve are not at all supportive either… as they currently stand. (more…)
Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But…
What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I was bullish on 1.5 years ago. I know, I know… I sold too soon and that is my issue and I have to own it. But the point is that it was hard to buy then, unlike now.
(more…)
Operation Twist By Another Name and Method?
The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation.
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom
This was going to be part of an NFTRH update, but I decided to make it public, as we’ll have plenty of other information to work on this weekend in NFTRH 474 after such an eventful market week.
With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.
Pardon the massive charts (click to expand) but I am going to start using these personally so that I can fully take into account the historical market aspects that go further back on a daily chart. They just don’t present as well at the website, unless clicked. So I’ll mostly use the smaller, clearer charts for public consumption. (more…)
